March 2026
When Is the Right Time to Buy in Truckee? What 20 Years of Sales Data Says
By Tristan Roberts · March 2026 · Market Analysis The question I get asked most consistently is some version of: “Should I wait?” My answer is almost always the same. Here’s why — backed by 20 years of actual sales data from the Truckee and North Tahoe market. What the Data Actually Shows 2019: 809…
Tristan Roberts
Licensed Real Estate Broker · DRE #01259729
The question I get asked most consistently is some version of: “Should I wait?” My answer is almost always the same. Here’s why — backed by 20 years of actual sales data from the Truckee and North Tahoe market.
What the Data Actually Shows
2019: 809 sales, median $650K2020: 1,132 sales, median $748K — pandemic demand surge begins
2021: 959 sales, median $980K — peak volume
2022: 654 sales, median $1.04M — rates rise, volume drops
2023: 604 sales, median $999K — stabilization
2024: 638 sales, median $1.10M — recovery
2025: 580 sales, median $1.12M — continued appreciation
The story in that data is: median prices went from $650K in 2019 to $1.12M in 2025. That’s 72% appreciation in six years. The people who “waited for prices to come down” after the 2020–2022 run-up are still waiting. Prices didn’t come back to 2019 levels. They plateaued and then resumed rising.
The Waiting Trap
Tahoe is a genuinely scarce asset class. TRPA restrictions mean significant new supply can’t be created — most buildable lots were developed decades ago, and what remains is heavily regulated. When demand normalizes, prices don’t fall to previous levels. They hold and eventually grow because there’s nothing new to absorb demand.
The buyers who waited in 2022 “for the crash” paid more in 2024 than they would have in 2022. The buyers who waited in 2023 paid more in 2025. I’ve watched this cycle play out multiple times in 27 years of working this market.
When Waiting Does Make Sense
There are legitimate reasons to wait: your financial position isn’t ready, you haven’t done the work to understand what you actually want, or you’re looking at a specific property and not a specific market entry. These are sensible reasons. “I think prices might go down 10–15%” is not a sensible reason — it would require economic conditions severe enough to affect Tahoe meaningfully, at which point you’d probably have other financial concerns anyway.
What I Tell Buyers Today
Days on market is currently 58 days on average in 2025 — the slowest it’s been since 2022. That means you have more time to be deliberate, more negotiating room, and more options. This is the most buyer-friendly environment since before the pandemic surge. It won’t last indefinitely. If you’re serious about buying in North Tahoe, the conditions right now — relative to where they’ll be in 18 months — are as good as they’re likely to get.
Wondering if now is the right time for your situation? Tristan gives honest market analysis, not sales pressure.
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